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$VTBR: VTB — IFRS for 4 months of 2026
Why I analyze it:
→ Asset in the portfolio
→ The largest state bank with a systemically important role in the Russian economy
→ The dynamics of results set the tone for future dividend expectations
📊 Financial results
🎙 Net profit 162.8 billion ₽ (165.8 billion ₽) –1.8% y/y
🎙 ROE 17.5% (18.3%) –80 bps y/y
🎙 Net operating income before reserves 475.8 billion ₽ (449.3 billion ₽) +5.9% y/y
Net profit for 4 months amounted to 162.8 billion ₽, which is 27% of the annual forecast of 600 billion ₽ (the main part of the profit is traditionally earned in the second half of the year).
📈 Loan portfolio and funding
🟢 Loan portfolio 25.2 trillion ₽ (24.5 trillion ₽) +3% since the beginning of the year
🔴 Client funds 27.5 trillion ₽ (27.9 trillion ₽) –1.3% since the beginning of the year
Moderate portfolio growth with a decrease in client funds reflects balance optimization under the conditions of a high Central Bank rate.
💰 Income and margins
🎙 Net interest income 265.9 billion ₽ (82.7 billion ₽) +221.5% y/y
🎙 Net interest margin 2.6% (0.8%) +1.8 p.p. y/y
🎙 Net commission income 111.4 billion ₽ (96.1 billion ₽) +15.9% y/y
The increase in interest income is due to the bank effectively monetizing the volume of working assets. Commission income grows mainly due to retail business, where the investment cycle in the client base has been completed. It is important to note that the growth of commission income has slowed compared to the first quarter (+15.9% vs. +24% earlier).
⚠️ Asset quality and expenses
🔛 Reserve expenses 78.5 billion ₽ (77.3 billion ₽) +1.6% y/y
🔛 Cost of risk (CoR) 0.9% (0.9%) unchanged y/y
In April, reserves decreased by 33% compared to March, indicating stabilization of credit quality. Stable cost of risk at 0.9% confirms the high quality of the current loan portfolio.
✏️ Conclusion
I assess the results as neutral.
Strengths:
✔️ margin expansion to 2.6% (for 4 months)
✔️ growth of net interest income (+222% y/y) and commissions (+15.9% y/y)
✔️ stable cost of risk (CoR 0.9%)
Weaknesses:
❌ lagging behind forecast indicators: profit for 4 months — 27% of the plan for 2026 (~600 billion ₽)
❌ decrease in net profit by 1.8% y/y, ROE — down to 17.5%
The bank demonstrates recovery of operational efficiency, but profit growth rates still lag behind management's ambitious goals.
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